| In the first “Show Us What You’ve Got – Fan to Famous” article, Dror Seiffe breaks down the strategy that you should follow to be a Top 50 player in the WNBA Triple Threat Fantasy Challenge. If you love to play WNBA fantasy basketball and think you have what it takes, Show Us What You’ve Got! |
June 30 - Hi there! For a few weeks now, I’ve been in the Top 50 of WNBA’s Triple Threat Challenge Leaderboard. Right now, I have 1,074 points, after three Week 7 games. That's good enough to be ranked 26th overall, and also for 1st place in my own league.
This is how I do it. Hopefully, you’ll find some useful tips here.
First of all, I review all of the match-ups taking place for the current week. Then I start picking on the day(s) with the least number of games played, and work my way up to the day(s) with the most. On days with an equal number of games I pick from the furthest (Sunday) to the nearest (Monday).
Why do I do it, and more importantly – why does it work?
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Dror received 37 PRA from Catchings on Thursday.
Ron Hoskins/NBAE/Getty Images) |
With my method, I make sure to have a good selection on those hard days first, when there isn't much selection. If there's a tie on the number of games played I start with the latest – so at the end of the week, when some people pick mediocre selections, I can pick the best. That way, I gain an advantage since I'm using top players for the beginning of the week as well, just probably not the ones with the highest PRA available that day.
Secondly, when picking the right player for a day, I don’t just look at the PRA average. There are some important things to remember: home court advantage is critical. For most top players it’s about 2-3 points differential, which can translate to 10-18 points for a whole week. [Editor's note: Someone is listening to The Time Machine!]
Check the standings in your own league. I’m sure most of you have at least one other challenger who is no more than 18 points ahead (or behind) of you – and I’m even more certain that you’re eager to close that gap (or if it’s the latter case, widen it).
So I try to pick a player playing at home. Statistically you would do better picking a 27 PRA player for a home game than picking a 29 PRA player on the road.
Also, I try not to pick a player who plays back-to-back games on her second straight game. Usually, they’ll be fatigued and perform below average. [Editor's note: Read this week's Threat Assessment] In much the same way, I try not to pick the player who had a blowout performance on her previous game – since mostly after huge performances the next game won’t be as good, and chances are some people will pick that player more – as an example, take Lisa Leslie’s 57 PRA monster on Sun. 06/25 and then her unimpressive 21 PRA on Wednesday, 06/28.
There is a flipside to that: most top players after a weak game tend to bounce back and have a good game after that – so that’s another reason to make sure you check your picks daily and tweak them as necessary.
Thirdly, on close calls I see how many people selected each player (the %Picked column), and if it seems reasonable, I try to pick against the majority. I believe having a few points edge on most other challengers is better than just keeping pace with the rest of the pack, so I may take the risk of ending up a few points back. That’s why we love the game – nothing’s certain, except for the fun.
Good luck!
(Zayfe http://www.wnba.com/fantasy/triplethreat/league.jsp?leagueId=47467